By: Ross Sutton

Even though the Yankees are in the middle of a divisional race with the Orioles and appear playoff bound, I can’t help but think ahead, as the Yankees have a very important offseason coming up. The most notable pending free agent on the current roster is obviously Juan Soto, who is having a career year. Additionally, a number of relievers from the bullpen will be free agents this winter too, so between trying to re-sign Soto to what will undoubtedly be an enormous contract and trying to construct a new bullpen, the Yankees front office will have plenty of work to do this offseason.

Juan Soto

I am cautiously optimistic that the Yankees will be able to re-sign Soto this offseason for a few reasons. First, Soto has seemed to really enjoy his time with the Yankees this season, as the fans have fully embraced him (which isn’t hard to do) and the team has had a pretty good season. Second, the Yankees knew when they traded for Soto that he would be a free agent this upcoming offseason, and there are few instances where the Yankees have failed to re-sign a player they really wanted to keep. Lastly, the Yankees really need Soto on this team, as he and Judge could be a historic 1-2 punch in the Yankees lineup for years to come. Also, taking away one of the best hitters in the game from this lineup would create a massive hole that would be very challenging to fill. So for these reasons, I think it is fairly likely that the Yankees will re-sign Soto, but it certainly won’t be cheap. I think Soto will surpass the $40M average annual value of Aaron Judge’s contract that was signed in December of 2022, and he will almost definitively receive a contract that is longer than Judge’s 9-year deal since Soto will only be in his age 26 season next year. Therefore, I project that Soto will re-sign with the Yankees on a 14-year, $630M ($45M AAV) contract. Re-signing Soto should be the Yankees top priority this offseason, but locking him up for the rest of his career would be a huge win for the Yankees organization, as it makes building a championship contender significantly easier.

First Base

The Yankees have gotten little to no production out of the first base position this year, as D.J. LeMahieu has been one of the worst offensive players in the league this season, and Anthony Rizzo has been hurt for a large part of the year. Ben Rice showed some promise in his time in the majors this year, but he has been overmatched by major league pitching in his last 30 games, as he has amassed a slash line of .116/.214/.242 in that time. Rice still has a decent chance to be an impactful big leaguer in my opinion, but he should probably be a depth or platoon option next year. The Yankees have a $17M club option for the next and final year of Rizzo’s contract, but that comes with a $6M buyout, so even if they decline the club option, they still owe Rizzo $6M. Therefore, the Yankees need to decide whether they think Rizzo can regain his old form (the remainder of the 2024 season will be very helpful in making that evaluation) and be an impact player, or if they would rather try to find a cheaper option through trade or free agency. Since the Yankees will have so much salary committed to Judge, Cole, Stanton, and hopefully Soto, I expect them to try to save money at most offensive positions by giving a lot of playing time to young players on rookie deals or older veterans that don’t command a large financial commitment.

If the Yankees decide to move off of Rizzo this offseason, I think Carlos Santana would be the best free agent fit for the Yankees. Santana is a great defensive first baseman, is a switch hitter, and hits very well against left-handed pitchers (.926 OPS this season), which has been a massive weakness for the Yankees this season. Since Santana is towards the end of his career and would probably benefit from getting a fair amount of days off, maybe the Yankees would consider platooning Santana and Ben Rice at first base next season. However, there probably wouldn’t be enough roster spots to do that and keep D.J. LeMahieu. The Yankees will have a very hard decision to make when it comes to LeMahieu, as he has really struggled this season, but he is owed $30M over the next two years, so the team would have to eat that $30M if they DFA’d LeMahieu, which is a tough pill to swallow, although it might be necessary if the team has real World Series aspirations. One player that could be a potential trade option is Nate Lowe from the Rangers, as he is in the 93rd percentile in Outs Above Average (OAA), 94th percentile in walk rate (12.4), has a strong .347 on-base percentage this season, and is signed via arbitration the next two seasons. Lowe has been pretty good in his career, but he has had a down year this season, so maybe the Rangers will be willing to trade him this offseason.

The Rest of the Offense

As far as the rest of the offense goes, I think the lineup will consist of a lot of familiar faces, as I expect the Yankees to fill the holes created by free agents leaving with players already in the organization. I project that star prospect Jasson Dominguez will replace pending free agent Alex Verdugo in left field, Jazz Chisolm will replace pending free agent Gleyber Torres at second base, and a combination of Oswaldo Cabrera, Jon Berti, and Oswald Peraza will replace Jazz and D.J. LeMahieu at third base. With these small changes, I anticipate the Yankees lineup to look something like this on Opening Day:

I would feel really good about this group coming into the season, as the lineup is deep and has a great mix of righties, lefties, and switch hitters. I also think the team’s defense would improve by moving Jazz back to second base where he has been very good in his career, replacing D.J. LeMahieu with Rizzo, Santana, or Lowe at first base, and having Cabrera and Berti at third base instead of Jazz who is learning how to play third base on the fly right now.

Pitching Staff

A large chunk of the Yankees bullpen is about to hit free agency, as Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Jake Cousins, Tim Hill, and Jonathan Loaisiga are all unrestricted free agents this winter. That leaves Luke Weaver (club option), Ian Hamilton, Mark Leiter Jr., Scott Effross, Ron Marinaccio, and Lou Trivino (club option) as the bullpen options for next year. Leiter Jr. has struggled in his short Yankees tenure and we have not seen much of Marinaccio, Effross, or Trivino in the major league bullpen this year for differing reasons, so I would assume the Yankees try to re-sign one or two of Holmes, Kahnle, and Cousins since they have all been effective this year. I could also see the team looking into signing a high-leverage reliever such as Blake Treinen (typical Matt Blake sinker/slider archetype like Clay Holmes), Carlos Estevez, Tanner Scott, or Kirby Yates depending on how their markets develop in the offseason.

In regards to starting pitching, the Yankees might already have their starting rotation set for next season, as Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes, Luis Gil, and Clarke Schmidt are all under team control through at least next season. There would be six guys fighting for five spots in the rotation during spring training if this is still their group of starters, but injuries usually arise with pitchers, so it’s good to have an extra guy that you feel confident in. Additionally, if the team has all six of these players to start the season, one of them could temporarily move to the bullpen until needed in the starting rotation, which would help fill a vacant spot in the bullpen.

Spencer Jones

Jones is currently the Yankees second best prospect behind Jasson Dominguez according to MLB.com, and if the Yankees are able to re-sign Juan Soto, then there likely won’t be room on the Yankees major league roster for Jones any time soon. This means that Spencer Jones could be a valuable trade chip for the Yankees this offseason. I could see the team trading Jones to the Marlins for someone like Jake Burger, who has four years of arbitration left on his deal, has always hit well in the majors, and can play either first or third base. The team could also try to package Jones with someone like Nestor Cortes, who is the final year of his contract, and try to acquire a young starting pitcher. A team like the Mariners comes to mind as a team that could potentially be a good trade partner in that scenario, as they are in need of offense and have multiple young starting pitchers that I’m sure the Yankees have interest in such as Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo. The Yankees might have to add additional players or prospects in a deal like that, but I think a trade with that framework could make sense for both teams.